First, the development of power battery industry
According to the sales forecast of new energy vehicles, and considering the demand for replacement batteries of existing vehicles, the sales of power batteries are expected to be 81.45, 95.51, and 157.79GWh in the next three years, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 51%, 53 respectively. %, 57%.
From a structural point of view, the proportion of LFP in 2018 dropped sharply from 62.07% to 49.51%, and the proportion of ternary rose rapidly from 22.90% to 43.94%. The increase in the demand for energy density indicators in the subsidy of the New Deal has made car companies increasingly favor ternary batteries.
Power battery shipment forecast for the next three years
2016 power battery cathode material composition
2017 power battery cathode material composition
The proportion of three yuan in the power battery in 2016
The proportion of three yuan in the power battery in 2017
Production and market share of major domestic power battery manufacturers in 2016 (GWh)
Production and market share of major domestic power battery manufacturers in 2017 (GWh)
2016-2017 domestic major power battery manufacturers capacity statistics (GWh)
Power battery production increased from 28.4GWh to 35.0GWh, an increase of 23% year-on-year. The power of manufacturers to expand production is strong, the production capacity has increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the capacity of CATL at the end of 2017 has reached 24GWh.
CATL has taken the lead and reached a market share of 33.71% in 2017, which has already opened up competitors. BYD and Guoxuan are ranked second and third. There are more second-tier manufacturers, and the market concentration is relatively low.
Second, the positive material industry competition pattern
LFP production fell from 63,390 tons to 55,100 tons, down about 13% year-on-year. Capacity increased from 32,350 tons to 57,800 tons, an increase of about 21% year-on-year. Betray and Hunan Shenghua double leading, the market share is about 15%.
Production statistics of major domestic LFP manufacturers (tonnes)
2016-2017 domestic major LFP manufacturers capacity statistics (tons)
Production and market share of major domestic NCM manufacturers in 2016-2017 (ton, %)
Domestic main NCM manufacturers capacity statistics (tons)
NCM production increased from 69,725 tons to 84,800 tons, an increase of 22% year-on-year. Capacity increased from 69,375 tons to 145,200 tons, an increase of over 100%. Ningbo Jinhe is the leader, with a market share of about 13%. Long-term lithium, Hunan Shanshan, Dangsheng technology followed. There are as many as 7 manufacturers with a market share of more than 5%, and the market concentration is low.
Production and market share of major domestic LCO manufacturers (ton, %)
Domestic LCO manufacturers' production capacity and market share (ton, %)
Production and market share of major domestic LMO manufacturers (ton, %)
Domestic main LMO manufacturers capacity statistics (tons)
LMO production increased from 20,900 tons to 22,300 tons, an increase of about 7% year-on-year. Production capacity fell from 17,300 tons to 13,600 tons, down about 21% year-on-year. Thornton's new energy has become the leader, with a market share of 17%.
Third, the negative electrode material industry development forecast
Betray, Shanshan Technology, Jiangxi Zijing three legs, and Dongguan Kaijin New Energy's strong participation, the market share is about 20%. In 2018, the growth rate of anode materials production was about 31%, which was enlarged compared with the previous year, but it is still growing rapidly. It is predicted that the total output of anode materials will be 28.70, 34.55 and 452,300 tons in 2018-2020, corresponding to 30%, 31% and 35% respectively.
Production statistics of major domestic negative electrode materials manufacturers (tonnes)
Domestic main negative electrode material manufacturers capacity statistics (tons)
Negative electrode materials will maintain growth in the next three years